अभूतपूर्व अवसर समात्न नसकेको अपूर्ण बजेट

आफ्नो कार्यकाल ५ वर्ष हुने कुरामा विश्वश्त भर्इ आगामी सालका बजेटको पूर्वानुमान गर्दै पहिलो किस्ताको रूपमा यो बजेट आएको छ। आजको मूल्यांकनको दाँजोमा २-३ वर्षपछि यही बजेटको समीक्षा कम कठोर हुनसक्ला। मौलिक नभए पनि अन्तर्निहित विकास ढाँचामा केही स्पष्टता छ।

क्षेत्रगत बजेट विनियोजन गर्दा दिगो विकासका लक्ष्यलाई पृष्ठभूमिमा राखिनु सकारात्मक हो। विनियोजनको दृष्टिले शिक्षा र पूर्वाधार प्राथमिकतामा परेका छन्।
समग्रमा भने एउटा अभूतपूर्व अवसर छोप्न नसकेको अपूर्ण बजेट हो यो। जसमा राजनीतिक भन्दा ब्युरोक्र्याटिक स्पिरिट बढी झल्कन्छ। उल्लेख्य नीतिगत प्रस्थान छैन। प्रचण्ड बहुमत भएको सरकारलाई ऐतिहासिक अनुकुलता थियो तर त्यस अनुरूपको नौलोपन वा क्रमभंगता भएन। अलोकप्रियताको साहस वा ठूला जोखिम उठाएको पाइएन।

अर्को वर्ष ८% को वार्षिक आर्थिक वृद्धि हुने, दुई वर्षमा पर्यटक संख्या दोब्बर अनि ५ वर्षमा कृषिको उत्पादकत्व दोब्बर हुने, दुई वर्षमा सबै साक्षर बन्ने, र अर्को साल मात्रै ५ लाख रोजगारी सिर्जना हुने आधार यो बजेटमा छैन।

थप लगानी तुरुन्तै भित्रिन थाल्ने, उत्पादन व्यापक बढ्ने, र व्यापार घाटा छिटै घट्ने विश्वसनीय आधार छैनन्।

लगभग सबै कार्यक्रमहरू मन्त्रालयबाट पहिलेजस्तै प्रस्तावित भएका छन्, दोहोरिएका छन्। कार्यक्रममा विगतकै निरन्तरता छ। नयाँ नारा मात्र दिने होडबाट पन्छिनु र ठूला आयोजनाहरुको कार्यान्वयन प्रभावकारी बनाउन केही क्रमिक सुधारहरूको घोषणा हुनु भने राम्रो हो (जस्तै गौरवका आयोजनालाई छुट्टै ऐन, पेश्की व्यवस्थामा सुधार, प्रमको समन्वय)।

महत्वाकांक्षी राजश्व वृद्धिको अपेक्षा छ। मूल्य-अभिवृद्धि कर र अन्तशुल्क प्रदेश र स्थानीयतहमा ३० प्रतिशत दिए पछि पनि ८३१ अर्बको राजश्व लक्ष्य ठूलो हो।

चुहावट रोक्ने, करको आधार बढाउने कुरा ठीक छ, तर करको दर वृद्धि हुँदा निजी क्षेत्रको कारोबार र लगानी निरुत्साहित हुने जोखिम छ। राज्यको डर-धम्की भन्दा पनि सन्तुलित आर्थिक उत्प्रेरणामार्फत अर्थतन्त्रमा औपचारिक क्षेत्रको हिस्सा बढाउनु पर्छ।

विदेशी अनुदान घट्दो छ र विदेशी ऋणनै लिएर ठूला पूर्वाधारमा लगानी गर्न नयाँ निकाय वा प्रशासकीय चुस्तताको शर्तप्रति वेवास्ता भएको हो कि? अर्थतन्त्रको आकारको अनुपातमा ५% भन्दा बढी (रु. १७२ अर्ब) आन्तरिक ऋण उठाउने कुरा जोखिमपूर्ण छ। किनकि, यसबाट निजी कर्जाको प्रवाहमा संकुचन हुनेछ।

संघीयताको पूर्ण र इमान्दार कार्यान्वयनमा शंका छ। ‘समपुरक अनुदान’ को प्रचुर प्रयोग गरी संघको नियन्त्रण यथावत राख्न खोजेको भान हुन्छ।

बेरोजगारीको आंशिक सम्वोधन गर्न खोजिएको छ। तर जम्मा रु. ३.१ अर्बको यो शीर्षकले कुनै चमत्कार नगर्ला। सार्वजनिक पूर्वाधारमा काम लगाउने, सूचना-केन्द्र स्थापना गर्ने, युवा-केन्द्रित ऋण दिने, चुनौती कोष खडा गर्ने जस्ता कुरा पुरानै हुन् तर, कार्यान्वयन फितलो हुन्थे।

सार्वजनिक-निजी साझेदारीका बारे पुन चर्चा गरे पनि सरकार सिर्जनशील नहुँदा खासै काम हुने सम्भावना कम छ। लगानी बोर्डको ऐन संशोधन गर्ने कुरा ठीक छ।

वित्तीय क्षेत्रका केही प्रस्तावित पहल उचित छन् जस्तै सर्वव्यापी बैंक खाता, बिमाको पहुँचमा विस्तार, नेपालको क्रेडिट रेटिङ, निवृत्तिभरणको व्यवस्थापन। इ-कमर्स र पेमेन्ट गेटवे लगायतका आधुनिक वित्तीय औजारबारे भने बोलेको सुनिएन। सामाजिक सुरक्षालाई एकीकृत मात्र होइन डिजिटल प्याकेजमै लानुपर्छ।

विगतमा जस्तो चुनावलाई ध्यान दिई लोक रिझाउने खालको कम्युनिष्ट बजेट त यो होइन। तर, अनुदानै अनुदानको कनिका जुन छरिएको छ, त्यसको दुरुपयोग हुने प्रशस्त ठाउँ छन्। अत्यावश्यक सेवा दिने २-३ वटा सरकारी संस्थानहरुको पुनर्गठनको सोच खराब होइन, तर अनुदार राज्य-नियन्त्रित अर्थव्यवस्थाको छनक भने आउन दिनहुन्न।

समग्रमा प्रधानमन्त्रीले नेपाललाई दश वर्षमा स्वर्ग बनाउने भने पनि त्यसको रोडम्याप यो बजेटमा अटेन। आफैंले बाँडेका ठूल्ठूला आशाको भारीले थिचिने अवस्थामा सरकार पुग्यो।

(याे धारणा योजना अायोगका पूर्व उपाध्यक्ष तथा अर्थविद् स्वर्णीम वाग्लेको फेसबुक पेजबाट साभार गरिएको हो । उनी हाल युरोप भ्रमणमा छन् ।)

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